Canadian Provincial Merchandise Exports by HS6 Product: United States vs. World (2022–2025)
Provincial and territorial merchandise exports disaggregated at the Harmonized System 6-digit (HS6) product level, tracking bilateral export flows to the United States versus total global exports, with precomputed US dependency ratios.
About this dataset
- Province and territory of origin/clearance (13 geographies)
- Harmonized System 6-digit product subheading (5,042 commodity codes)
- Reference year (2022–2025)
- Destination market (United States vs. World)
- International commercial services (merchandise goods only)
- Non-US individual partner countries (all non-US destinations are aggregated into World totals)
- Sub-provincial geographies (no Census Divisions or CMAs)
- Monthly or quarterly frequencies (annual totals only)
Measurement notes
- Data Exchange Agreement: Under the bilateral 1990 pact, Canada derives its US merchandise export statistics from US import declarations, ensuring bilateral consistency but reflecting US tariff valuations.
- Province of Clearance vs. Origin: Customs documentation records the province where goods clear border controls. For inland shipments transshipped via coastal ports or pipeline terminals, attribution may align with clearance rather than initial extraction.
- Vendored Release: Upstream ISED Trade Data Online presents HS8 data; this dataset aggregates HS8 records to international standard HS6 subheadings and pairs bilateral US flows with global totals.
- US Share Ceiling: Shares are bounded at 1.0 (100%). Two product lines with zero total world exports have undefined shares (null).
| Column | Type | Non-null | Unique | Mean | Min | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| hs6_code | object | 100.0% | 5042 | — | 010121 | 990100 |
| commodity_desc | object | 100.0% | 5041 | — | "Kelem", "Schumacks" | o-,m-,p-Phenylenedia |
| province | object | 100.0% | 13 | — | Alberta | Yukon |
| year | int32 | 100.0% | 4 | 2,023.5 | 2022 | 2025 |
| value_us_cad | Int64 | 100.0% | 62203 | $31.29M | $0 | $130.88B |
| value_world_cad | Int64 | 100.0% | 64209 | $40.67M | $0 | $130.99B |
| us_share | Float64 | 100.0% | 44988 | 0.8108 | 0.0000 | 1.0000 |
| Province / Territory | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alberta | ||||
| British Columbia | ||||
| Manitoba | ||||
| New Brunswick | ||||
| Newfoundland and Labrador | ||||
| Northwest Territories | ||||
| Nova Scotia | ||||
| Nunavut | ||||
| Ontario | ||||
| Prince Edward Island | ||||
| Quebec | ||||
| Saskatchewan | ||||
| Yukon |
Observations
- 2022 Energy Shock ($711.1B total, 78.1% US) — NOTES.md: Peak post-invasion oil/gas prices boost nominal export totals
- 2024 Baseline ($706.8B total, 77.5% US) — NOTES.md: Full calendar year baseline for provincial trade flows
- 2025 Share Moderation (73.1% US) — NOTES.md: Divergence driven by increased non-US petroleum and agricultural shipments
Data Provenance & Customs Basis Methodology
This dataset originates from Statistics Canada's Canadian International Merchandise Trade Web Application (Catalogue 71-607-X2021004, Survey SDDS 2201) and is compiled under the 1990 Canada-United States Data Exchange Agreement. Canadian exports to the US are derived directly from import documentation collected by US Customs and Border Protection and processed by the US Census Bureau, ensuring bilateral reporting consistency. Values are measured on a customs basis (f.o.b. plant/border). The dataset is published via ISED Trade Data Online (TDO) and vendored as an analytical HS6 provincial release.
Provincial Asymmetry: Pipeline/Auto Integration vs Pacific Gateway
Canada's national export dependency of ~77.5% conceals intense regional polarity. Alberta (89.1% US share) and New Brunswick (92.4% US share) are structurally tied to US refining and pipeline infrastructure. Ontario (77.7% US share) reflects cross-border automotive and advanced manufacturing value chains. In contrast, British Columbia (53.4% US share) and Saskatchewan (59.1% US share) function as Pacific and global exporters, sending metallurgical coal, lumber, potash, pulses, and wheat primarily to Asian and global non-US markets.
Notes
Captures 5,042 HS6 product lines across all 10 provinces and 3 territories, demonstrating intense provincial concentration and asymmetric US dependence (median US export share is 97.5% across provincial product lines).
Validation Checks
External: $596.2B CAD (total exports including re-exports) / $548.1B domestic provincial allocation (Statistics Canada The Daily (2025-02): 'Canadian International Merchandise Trade' (Annual Customs Basis))
Provincial export sum to the US ($548.1B CAD) closely aligns with StatCan domestic customs exports to the US.
External: 75.9% of total domestic merchandise exports (Statistics Canada The Daily: 'Canadian International Merchandise Trade' (2024 Annual Review))
Provincial allocation yields 77.5%, within 1.6 percentage points of StatCan's national domestic benchmark (75.9%).
External: 93.4% of passenger vehicles and light trucks exported to the US (Statistics Canada Analytical Series: Automotive Manufacturing Trade 2024)
HS 870323 (passenger spark-ignition cars) shows 94.9% US destination share, closely matching official automotive integration reports.
External: $145B–$150B CAD crude oil exports; ~95% destined for US refineries (Natural Resources Canada / Statistics Canada Energy Trade Statistics 2024)
Crude petroleum accounts for 21.0% of total Canadian goods exports with near-total US market dependency ($141.7B of $148.2B CAD).
External: $250.8B CAD total international merchandise exports (Statistics Canada Table 12-10-0176-01 / Ontario Ministry of Finance Economic Accounts)
Difference between our dataset ($250.4B) and StatCan Table 12-10-0176-01 ($250.8B) is under 0.2%, confirming precise alignment.